A description of recent drought prevalence in the Limpopo River Basin

dc.title: A description of recent drought prevalence in the Limpopo River Basin
dc.contributor.author: Ghosh, Surajit; Vigneswaran, Kayathri; Dickens, Chris; Retief, H.; Andarcia, Mariangel Garcia
dcterms.abstract: This report provides an in-depth analysis of drought conditions in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB), with a focus on drought frequency, meteorological patterns, and agricultural impacts. Historical drought data and earth observation (EO) datasets are used to monitor and forecast drought severity. Key indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and rainfall anomalies derived from advanced EO technologies offer valuable insights into the basin’s drought dynamics.

• Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) datareveals a persistent pattern of dry conditions from March 2023 to the end of theyear, which can be exacerbated by the El Niño phenomenon. Notably, thenorthern and southeastern regions of the basin show the highest concentration ofdry days, critically impacting water availability and agricultural activities.

• Vegetation health declined across the basin in the short term because of El Niño,which started in May 2023 and resulted in less than normal rainfall.Approximately 37% of the basin experienced drought during the 2023-2024cropping season, affecting ecosystems and crop yields.

• The analysis of the water balance (difference between precipitation andevapotranspiration) for the basin’s croplands in 2023 highlights significantfluctuations, with both surplus (Oct 2023 to Feb 2024) and deficit (Jan to Sep in2023) months. This variability underscores the challenges in managing waterresources for agriculture and food security.

This data feeds into the IWMI Digital Twin platform for the Limpopo Basin, which provides near real-time hydrological data, supporting informed decision-making for water management and agricultural planning. The platform integrates multiple datasets, allowing policymakers to visualize and assess the evolving drought conditions across the basin.
cg.contributor.initiative: Digital Innovation